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Peter Clayborne's avatar

A powerful exchange, and a compelling conclusion to some real difficult topics.

I agree that collapse is inevitable at this point -- I'd say we're already experiencing it, just not all at the same time and place. What keeps me on the utopian side of things is that, perhaps unlike a lot of people, I welcome the collapse of much of this world that we know.

Other parts of collapse do cause me anxiety, but I'm convinced that we can care for each other and make it through the bottleneck, as we've done many times before (just not quite at this scale).

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Larry Hogue's avatar

I hear you about what is likely coming. It's true, as Elle says, that we're making a lot of progress on climate change. Carbon output is likely to peak sometime in the next decade, and that's good news. But on the other hand, most climate scientists will tell you that we're already seeing much more extreme climate effects than their models predicted for the level of greenhouse gases we have right now, let alone the increase that's baked into the system. (Sources for both those points come from Kate Marvel, senior climate scientist with Project Drawdown on the Ezra Klein show.) Then add to that that the 6th Great Extinction would be happening with or without climate change, which only exacerbates it.

A couple more destabilizing forces (or symptoms?) in addition to the ones you mentioned:

- the increasing uninsurability of large areas of our country (All State pulling out of the California home insurance market entirely, for instance). Our economy pretty much doesn't run if investments can't be insured.

- the draining of the Ogallala Aquifer in Kansas, which we began hearing about in the '90s and now means farms that had contributed huge amounts to world-wide food production have gone back to dryland farming, and their production is way down.

- I could go on!

My own thinking is we have to have a two-pronged approach: the first, supporting all those technical and economic fixes that may somehow blunt the climate crisis and support the 9+ billion humans that are soon going to inhabit this planet, getting them through the keyhole of climate-challenged food production and climate-fueled mass migration, while trying to also save as much of the non-human world as we can. Who knows? Maybe there will be enough technical fixes to manage it, ones that we can't entirely predict. Paul Ehrlich didn't imagine the Green Revolution, which has fed a whole lot of people. (Many would say that it just postponed things, plus the huge environmental drawbacks.)

And the second prong, doing the kind of community building right where we live so that when the excrement hits the oscillating blades (more than it already is), we'll have some sort of local resiliency to weather the storm without going full personal bunker. But that's really hard here in the US (and many other places, probably) when we're so atomized by culture and divided by politics. I'm really bad at that kind of community building, by the way, since I'm such a writing hermit, so I'm no one to talk.

One thing that did give me hope was this movie, Join or Die, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt26081864/ . It's a documentary on Robert Putnam, who wrote Bowling Alone. (It's dragged down by the inclusion of some triggering political people, which I wish they'd omitted.) Maybe the solution to all our problems is for everyone to join some sort of club!

And now I have to post this, typos and all, and run off to our neighborhood's monthly lunch.

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